by Charles Cheng, CFA
Investors can be successful in all sorts of styles, whether that’s short term, long term, quantitative, event driven, or fundamental. Even mixtures of these investment styles can work, as different environments may more suited to certain types of strategies. One thing to be careful of however is to be disciplined in making sure investment thesis doesn’t shift when market prices go in unexpected ways. We’ll discuss two fundamental investment strategies that have worked for us in the past and the dangers of mixing investment rationale.
投資者不論使用何種投資理論–短線、長線、定量、事件驅動或基本面–都是可以成功的。 即使是混合這些投資樣式也是可行的，因為不同的環境可能更適合某些類型的策略。 不過，需要注意的一件事是，當市場走勢出現意外時，要確保自身投資論點不會被其影響而改變。 下面我們將討論過去適用於我們的兩種基本投資策略以及混合投資理念的危險。
Let’s say you see an opportunity where you suspect that a company’s business may be substantially better than expected in the coming few quarters or upcoming year. For example, through your analysis of competing product roadmaps and supply chains you think that an electronics company is going to sell a lot more phones than Wall Street analysts are forecasting. You can then take a position in the company and wait for your thesis to play out. By its nature, this opportunity is short-termed. If it comes true, company analysts would have to raise their forecasts to reflect the new reality, and other investors who had been valuing the company at a certain multiple of upcoming earnings would have to raise their price targets and you’d probably make excess returns. If you were wrong, then you should close the position and move on to the next idea.
假設您看到一個機會，並認為某家公司的業務在接下來的幾個季度或來年可能會大大好於預期。 例如，通過對競爭產品路線圖和供應鏈的分析，您認為一家電子公司手機的預期銷售量將比華爾街分析師預期得多很多。 這時，您可以購入一些該公司的股票並等待你的理論付諸實踐。 從本質上講，這種機會是短期的。 如果您的預測成真了，那麼股票分析師們將不得不提高預測以反映新的股價，而其他以收益倍數對公司進行估值的投資者也得提高價格目標，那時您可能會獲得超額收益。 如果您錯了，那麼您應該平倉並轉到下一個想法。
As simple as it sounds, there are plenty of ways to lose discipline here. You could refuse to sell, even though your thesis is proven wrong in the hopes that somehow the price comes back. Even if your thesis is proven right, you could hold onto the position too long after the catalysts for the price move have passed or have been priced in. Once you get to that point, it’s even harder to change course because you may not want to admit a mistake.
雖然聽起來很簡單，但是真正操作起來會很容易使自己失去紀律。 有時即使您的想法被證明是錯誤的，您也會拒絕出售手中的股票，因為你會希望股價會以某種方式回升。 而有時即使您的想法被證明是正確的，您也可能在價格上漲的推動力過去後仍持有股票過久。 一旦到了這個地步，那麼改變路線就更加困難了，因為您可能不想承認自己犯了一個錯誤。
If you are investing for the long term, discipline is just as important. An ideal company to hold long term has an economic moat, a concept popularized by Warren Buffett. This means a competitive advantage that enables it to have monopoly power over a given market segment without being pressured by competition. For example, in the case of semiconductors, each subsequent generation of advanced technology requires higher capital expenditure, ensuring that the largest most dominant companies consistently maintain a technological advantage over their smaller competitors. This advantage can then translate into higher margins and being able to capture new growth opportunities, especially when the overall market is growing. Based on the understanding of these dynamics, you would feel more comfortable buying shares when business is currently not going as well, or at a higher valuation than you would for other companies.
如果您要進行長線投資，紀律同樣重要。 理想的長期公司具有經濟護城河，這是沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）推廣的概念。 這意味著競爭優勢，使其能夠在給定的市場部分中擁有壟斷權，而不受競爭壓力。 例如，就半導體而言，每一輪新生代的先進技術都需要更高的資本支出，從而確保最大、最有優勢的公司始終保持優於較小競爭對手的技術優勢。 這種優勢可以轉化為更高的利潤，並能夠抓住新的增長機會，尤其是在整個市場不斷增長的時候。 基於對這些動態的了解，當您認為該公司當前業務進展雖然不佳或估值高於其他公司時，您仍會樂於購買股票。
You would only exit the position if the moat was no longer valid, or if the market potential clearly does not justify the valuation. But if these factors haven’t changed, you must resist the temptation to mentally reclassify your trade as a short term one, which might cause you to sell because you’re afraid of losing your gains. Even more important is acting on closing a position when the competitive advantages have actually changed, rather than deciding that now the company is a value play that looks cheap on a valuation basis.
只有在護城河不再有效或市場潛力顯然無法證明其合理性的情況下，您才可以退出該持股。 但是，如果這些因素沒有改變，您心理上就必須抵制將交易重新歸類為短期的誘惑 — 這可能會導致您賣出股票，因為您擔心會損失已出現的獲利。 更為重要的是，當股價因競爭優勢實際上發生了變化而應該結束該部位時，卻不採取行動，轉而視該公司為價值型投資 — 因為其價格便宜了。
So how do you maintain this discipline? The easiest way is to classify your investment before you even enter the trade so that you can revisit your original case at important decision points. If you have trouble keeping your rationale consistent over time, then you better write it down beforehand and institute a process where you are forced to use it to hold yourself accountable.
Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.
鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。 這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。 該文章不應被視為投資建議。