Expert's View 名家觀點

管理未知Managing the Unknown

九月 1 , 2021  

Since July 22nd (up to August 22nd), the government of China announced or hinted at rules to limit the business activity of the education, trust, movie, food delivery, video game, streaming video, and other internet related industries. In that time, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 21% and the S&P US listed Chinese company index fell over 24%. The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index and the China A-share FTSE A50 Index both also fell over 10% in the same period.

自 7 月 22 日以來 (截至8月22日),中國政府宣布或暗示了限制教育、信託、電影、外賣、視頻遊戲、流媒體視頻和其他互聯網相關行業的商業活動的規定。 當時,恆生科技指數跌幅超過21%,標普美國上市中國公司指數跌幅超過24%。 香港股市基準恆生指數和中國 A 股富時 A50 指數同期跌幅均超過 10%。

 

 

While some investors in the companies affected could have been aware of the possibility that government measures could impact certain industries negatively in pursuit of its longer-term objectives, the suddenness of the moves and disregard for the public shareholders of certain companies and industries likely caught most off guard. We’ve previously discussed risk management several times in this column. Given that an event like this was essentially unknowable for most people, what are the lessons we can draw in terms of investment risk management in this scenario?

雖然受影響公司的一些投資者可能已經意識到政府 (為實現其長期目標) 的措施可能會對某些行業產生負面影響,但這些對某些公司和行業的突然舉動和對大眾投資者的漠視卻讓人猝不及防。 我們之前在本專欄中多次討論過風險管理。 鑑於這樣的事件對大多數人來說本質上是不可知的,在這種情況下,我們可以在投資風險管理方面吸取哪些教訓?

 

 

Recognize that some things just aren’t predictable

You could have the best forecasts into the growth prospects of a company or industry out of anyone, but if regulators make an entire sector non-profit, that insight could become irrelevant. It’s important to keep in mind that just because something has not happened in recent memory, that it doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the future. Such events are typically rare enough not to be a reason to avoid making an investment, but one can still construct their portfolios in a manner that it can survive the unexpected.

1)認識到有些事情就是不可預測的

你可以對公司或行業的增長前景做出最好的預測,但如果監管機構 (一夕之間) 讓整個行業成為非營利組織,那麼這種洞察力可能變得無關緊要。 重要的是要記住,僅僅因為最近的記憶中沒有發生過某事,並不意味著它不會在未來發生。 此類事件通常非常罕見,不足以成為避免進行投資的理由,但人們仍然可以以一種可以在意外發生時也可以倖存下來的方式構建他們的投資組合。

 

 

Don’t let yourself get in a situation that you can’t come back from

Some of the companies affected are now down over 80% over the past six months. Margin investors in these likely were called out of their positions. Taking a large drawdown on your positions while borrowing heavily on margin leaves you vulnerable to being forced out and never reclaiming your losses, even if you are right in the long run.

2)不要讓自己陷入無法回頭的境地

在過去的六個月中,一些受影響的公司現在下跌了 80% 以上。 而投資這些公司的槓桿投資者可能會被斷頭。 在大量使用融資投資時市場大幅下挫會使您被迫出售,並且永遠不會收回您的損失,即使從長遠來看您的投資想法是對的。

 

 

Diversifying only between companies is insufficient

Some investors manage risk with the rule of thumb of putting between 2-5% in each company while letting the opportunities uncovered by their research to construct their portfolio from the bottom up. This is fine but without considering country and sector concentration, their portfolio’s downside vulnerability to political risk could be much more significant than realized.

3)僅在公司之間進行分散投資是不夠的

一些投資者根據經驗法則管理風險,即在每家公司中投入 2%-5%,同時通過他們的研究會自下而上地構建他們的投資組合。 這是OK的,但如果不考慮國家和行業的集中度,他們的投資組合對政治風險下行的脆弱性可能比意識到的要嚴重得多。

 

 

A practical way to look at risk management is not the elimination of risk, but the mitigation of it to where one can consistently remain invested without being forced out of their investment strategy in any scenario. The market correction undoubtedly cost many equity holders much of their portfolio values, but those with a clear framework on how to be protected from and deal with unexpected events should be much better positioned to bounce back and reach their investment objectives.

看待風險管理的一種實用方法不是消除風險,而是將風險降低到可以持續投資的程度,並且不會在任何情況下被迫退出其投資策略。 市場調整無疑使許多股權持有人損失了慘重,但那些在如何保護和處理意外事件方面有明確框架的人應該更有能力使其投資組合反彈並實現他們的投資目標。

 

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.