by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

John Maynard Keynes is famous for his contributions to the field of economics, with his ideas providing the foundation for modern macroeconomic policy.  Less known is the fact that he is also one of the notable investors in history.  Understanding his contributions to the field of economics as well as his actions in managing his portfolios can benefit any investor.

約翰·梅納德·凱因斯因其在經濟學領域的貢獻而聞名，他的思想為現代宏觀經濟政策奠定了基礎。　鮮為人知的是，他也是歷史上著名的投資者之一。　了解他對經濟學領域的貢獻以及他在管理投資組合方面的操作可以使任何投資者受益。　

 

Keynes lived from 1883 to 1946, experiencing and responding to the economic challenges of the Great Depression, which influenced much of his work.  His most renowned work, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money,” published in 1936, challenged the prevailing neoclassical economic thought of the time.  He argued that aggregate demand—or total spending in the economy—is the primary driving factor of economic activity and employment levels. Keynes contended that during periods of economic downturn, private sector demand often falls short of what is needed to maintain full employment. Therefore, in such times, government intervention, through public policies like increased government spending and lower taxes, is necessary to boost demand, reduce unemployment, and stabilize the economy.

凱因斯生活於 1883 年至 1946 年，曾經歷並應對大蕭條的經濟挑戰，這些也影響了他的大部分工作。　他最著名的著作《就業、利息和貨幣通論》於 1936 年出版，挑戰了當時盛行的新古典主義經濟思想。　他認為，總需求（或經濟中的總支出）是經濟活動和就業水準的主要驅動因素。　凱因斯認為，在經濟低迷時期，私營部門的需求往往無法滿足維持充分就業的需求。　因此，在這種情況下，政府有必要透過增加政府支出、降低稅收等公共政策進行干預，以刺激需求、減少失業、穩定經濟。　

 

This approach marked a significant shift from the classical economic theories, which emphasized long-term market equilibrium and minimal government intervention. Keynesian economics provided the theoretical foundation for active government policies to influence economic outcomes, advocating for fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the effects of economic recessions, depressions, and booms.

這種方法標誌著對強調長期市場均衡和最小政府干預的古典經濟理論的重大轉變。　凱因斯主義經濟學為積極的政府政策影響經濟結果提供了理論基礎，並主張採取財政和貨幣措施來減輕經濟衰退、蕭條和繁榮的影響。　

 

Among his ideas that remain valid and influential today:

他的思想至今仍然有效且具有影響力的有：

 

The Importance of Aggregate Demand: The principle that aggregate demand drives economic activity and employment in the short run remains central to macroeconomic analysis and policy.

總需求的重要性：總需求在短期內驅動經濟活動和就業的原則仍然是宏觀經濟分析和政策的核心。　

 

The Role of Government in Stabilizing the Economy: The idea that government action can and should be used to stabilize the economy, prevent deep recessions, and support recovery is widely accepted.

政府在穩定經濟中扮演的角色：政府行動可以而且應該用來穩定經濟、防止嚴重衰退和支持復甦的觀點已被廣泛接受。

　

Liquidity Preference and Interest Rates: Keynes’s theory of liquidity preference, which explains interest rates in terms of the supply and demand for money, continues to influence monetary policy.

流動性偏好與利率：凱因斯的流動性偏好理論從貨幣供給和需求的角度解釋了利率，並繼續影響貨幣政策。　

 

Countercyclical Fiscal Policies: The use of government spending and taxation to counteract economic downturns and inflation remains a cornerstone of fiscal policy in many countries.

逆週期財政政策：利用政府支出和稅收來應對經濟衰退和通貨膨脹仍然是許多國家財政政策的基石。　

 

Keynes’ investing history is less known but worth studying.  He initially started out as a speculator, placing large bets on currency and commodity movements, using his knowledge as an economist.  While initially successful his portfolio was almost wiped out in the crash of 1929.  Following this experience, he largely shifted his investing strategy to value investing in companies and built up the equivalent of 10s of millions of dollars in today’s currency in private wealth. 

凱因斯的投資歷史鮮為人知，但仍值得研究。　他最初是一名投機者，利用自己作為經濟學家的知識對貨幣和大宗貨品走勢進行大量押注。　雖然最初很成功，但他的投資組合在1929 年的股市崩盤中幾乎化為烏有。　有了這次經歷，他的投資策略基本上轉向了對公司的價值投資，並積累了相當於數千萬美元（以今天的貨幣計算）的私人財富。　

 

Keynes was similarly successful in managing institutional portfolios.  He managed the endowments of several institutions, most notably the King’s College Endowment.  He was well ahead of his time in implementing a heavily equity weighted portfolio (noting that stocks were not as risky relative to their return if held for longer horizons) and global diversification.  Although his strategy initially was based on timing the stock market based on the credit cycle, much like his personal investments, he shifted into long term holdings of companies he thought were undervalued and well managed.  Ultimately, his directly managed portion of the King’s College Endowment outperformed the UK stock market by 6 percent a year over a 25 year period and only underperformed the market in six of those years.  

凱因斯在管理機構投資組合方面也同樣取得了成功。　他管理多個機構的捐贈基金，其中最著名的是國王學院捐贈基金。　他在實施高度股票加權投資組合（指出如果長期持有股票相對於回報而言風險並不大）和全球多元化方面遠遠領先於時代。　儘管他的策略最初是基於信貸週期來確定股票市場的時機，就像他的個人投資一樣，但他轉而長期持有他認為被低估且管理良好的公司。　最終，他直接管理的國王學院捐贈基金在 25 年期間每年的表現優於英國股市 6%，並且其中只有 6 年的表現低於市場。　

 

On investing in common stocks, Keynes had the following to say:

關於投資普通股，凱因斯有以下論述：

 

“It is largely the fluctuations (of the stock market) which throw up the bargains and the uncertainty due to fluctuations which prevents other people from taking advantage of them.”

“很大程度上是（股市）的波動帶來了便宜貨，而波動帶來的不確定性又阻礙了其他人利用它們。”

 

“I am generally trying to look a long way ahead and am prepared to ignore immediate fluctuations, if I am satisfied that the assets and earning power are there…it I succeed in this, I shall simultaneously have achieved safety-first and capital profits.”

“如果我對該資產和盈利能力感到滿意,我通常會努力放眼未來，並忽略眼前的波動， ……如果我成功了，我將同時實現安全第一和資本獲利。 ”

 

“I am still convinced that one is doing a fundamentally sound thing, that is to say, backing intrinsic values, enormously in excess of the market price, which at some utterly unpredictable date will in due course bring the ship home.”

“我仍然相信，人們正在做一件從根本上來說是正確的事情，也就是說，支持遠遠超過市場價格的內在價值，在某個完全不可預測的日期，這艘船將會在適當的時候帶回家。”

 

Of course, if one is to practice long term investing in companies in a similar way to Keynes, it would also be prudent to also keep in mind two famous quotes popularly attributed to the great economist:

當然，如果你想以類似於凱因斯的方式對公司進行長期投資，那麼謹慎的做法是牢記這位偉大經濟學家的兩句名言：

 

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What, sir, do you do?”

“市場保持非理性的時間可能比你能支撐的時間長。　”“當事實發生變化時，我就會改變我的想法。　先生，你呢？”

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

 

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