Expert's View 名家觀點

打你能贏的仗 Fighting the Battles You Can Win

四月 1 , 2024  

by Charles Cheng, CFA



Most investors who are building a portfolio solely for their own account, are doing so on a part time basis rather than part of a full-time job.  They may or may not be experts in financial statement analysis and / or quantitative model building.  So, it is important that they can objectively evaluate their own capabilities and adapt their investing activities accordingly.  Previously, we have discussed the various of styles of investing that one could implement based on their own situations.  Now we dig a big deeper into how one should allocate their research efforts when implementing their strategy.

大多數專門為自己的帳戶建立投資組合的投資者都是兼職在投資,而不是花一部分全職投資工作的時間來進行的。 他們可能是也可能不是財務報表分析和/或定量模型建構的專家。 因此,如果個人投資者能夠客觀地評估自己的能力並相應地調整自己的投資活動是非常重要的。 之前我們已經討論了人們可以根據自己的情況採取的各種投資方式。 現在,我們將更深入地探討在實施策略時應把研究的側重點放在哪裡。 


Taking the example of active fundamental investing, before placing an order to buy the securities of a company, one would first have to decide on the universe of companies to consider, decide on a criterion to narrow down to a couple of candidates, and then conduct research to decide whether to make the investment or not.  Immediately, your familiarity and comfort level with a particular country or sector of a company come into play.  If you know absolutely nothing about either, you either must spend the time learning about them or avoid considering direct investment, gaining exposure through a fund or other means if necessary.

以主動型基本面投資為例,在決定購買股票之前,人們首先必須決定一個大致的投資範圍,並使用一個標準來縮小範圍到幾個候選公司,然後進行研究決定是否投資。 此時您對特定國家或公司部門的熟悉程度和舒適度會立即發揮作用。 如果您對其中任何一項一無所知,那麼您必須花時間了解它們,或者避免考慮直接投資,必要時可以透過基金或其他方式投資。 


After deciding the universe of companies that you would consider focusing on, you now have to decide on which criteria to evaluate them.  Here’s where it gets tricky.  There is a temptation to pick some characteristics that you like, such as your favorite financial and valuation ratios, and then rank companies based upon them.  However, aside from the fact that certain metrics cannot be compared across sectors or countries, this method is an oversimplification of the investing process. 

在確定了您想要投資的公司範圍後,您現在必須決定使用哪些標準來評估這些公司。 而到這裡就不是那麼簡單了。 人們很容易選擇一些他們喜歡的特徵,例如他們偏好的財務和估值比率,然後根據這些對公司進行排名。 然而,除了某些指標無法對跨部門或國家進行比較之外,上述方法過於簡化了投資過程。 


First, simple metrics are easily accessible to the public.  If the companies with better looking metrics always had better performing stocks or bonds, then everyone could easily begin to allocate to them and then the valuation would be bid up until the return advantage disappears.  Instead, what investors need to do is look for a reason why there is a market inefficiency that has not already been exploited by the investment public and finance professionals.  Typically, these reasons are very different depending on the investor’s time horizon.

首先,簡單的評估指標公眾可以輕鬆獲得。 如果那些看起來指標較好的公司總是有表現較好的股票或債券,那麼每個人都可以很容易地開始買入它們,然後估值就會被抬高,直到回報優勢消失。 相反,投資者需要做的是尋找某個尚未被投資大眾和金融專業人士發掘的市場低效率的原因。 這些原因通常因投資期的長短而異。 


In the short term, such as in the next few business quarters, investors require an informational advantage and a catalyst to realize the market inefficiency.  This advantage could be a proprietary quantitative model or deep industry knowledge to understand how a company is going to perform in the near future than everyone else.  The catalyst is for realizing this advantage as you could understand a company better than everyone, but if nothing happens to bring everyone closer to your view, such as with a surprise earnings result, then you will not outperform either.

在短期內,例如在接下來的幾個營業季度,投資者需要資訊優勢和催化劑來實現市場低效率所帶來的收益。 這種優勢可以是專有的定量模型或是比其他人更能了解某公司在不久將來的表現所需要的深厚行業知識。 催化劑是為了實現上述優勢帶來的收益。 當你比其他人都更了解這家公司,但如果沒有發生任何事情讓其他人也認可你的觀點,例如令人驚訝的盈利結果,那麼你也沒機會跑贏其他人。 


For long term investments, such a catalyst is no longer needed, as holding for a sufficiently long-time horizon would be sufficient to realize the value.   Correspondingly, the requirement for a significant information advantage is also relaxed.  If you have a sufficient understanding of the competitive dynamics of the company and industry, then you would have a concept of the long-term value that the company brings, with the only task left to be purchasing the securities at a reasonable price. 

對於長期投資來說,我們就不再需要這樣的催化劑了,因為如果持有期足夠長的話就足以實現其價值。 相應地,對顯著資訊 (不對稱) 優勢的要求也放寬了。 如果你對公司和產業的競爭動態有足夠的了解,那麼你就會對公司帶來的長期價值有一個概念,剩下的唯一任務就是以合理的價格購買該公司的證券。 


In each of these cases, understanding where your strengths are in terms of analysis is the key to being able to conduct your personal investment research efficiently.  In those areas where you do not have a strong advantage, you’re better off avoiding altogether.

在上訴每種情況下,了解您在分析方面的優勢是能夠有效進行個人投資研究的關鍵。 在那些你沒有強大優勢的領域,你最好完全避免涉及。 




This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.