by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

A popular investing adage is that investors hate uncertainty.  Not only does it add to the difficulty in forecasting economic outcomes, but also takes a psychological toll on investment decision-making. And given the events of the past few weeks politically and the volatility in global markets that came along with it, there appears to be plenty of reasons to be uncertain.

一個流行的投資格言是說投資者討厭不確定性。　因為不確定性不僅增加了預測經濟結果的難度，也對投資決策造成了心理上的影響。　鑑於過去幾週發生的政治事件以及隨之而來的全球市場動盪，似乎有許多理由讓人感到不確定。　

 

On April 2, the US announced a sweeping new tariff policy, invoking emergency powers. The stated reason was to address persistent U.S. trade deficits and what President Trump described as nonreciprocal trade practices and currency manipulation by other countries. After a week of market turmoil, the US doubled down, adding higher ‘reciprocal’ tariffs before reversing course less than 24 hours later, announcing a temporary halt on these new tariffs with some exceptions.

4月2日，美國宣布了一項全面的新關稅政策，並動用了緊急權力。　其公開的理由是為了解決美國持續存在的貿易逆差以及川普總統所說的其他國家的非互惠貿易行為和貨幣操縱問題。　經過一周的市場動盪，美國翻倍加注，提高了「互惠」關稅，但在不到 24 小時後又改變政策，宣佈在有一些例外的情況下暫時停止徵收這些新關稅。　

 

Given that the economic rationale of the tariffs is shaky from the start, with economists estimating that the damage would accrue to the US economy itself in the form of lower GDP and higher inflation and because entire supply chains can’t reorient on short notice, there is little point to trying to figure out the next move. Either they are based on false assumptions or there is another unknowable motive behind them. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects a long-run reduction in U.S. GDP of about 6% and a 5% decline in wages.

鑑於關稅的經濟基本原理從一開始就站不住腳，經濟學家估計，關稅拉升將以GDP下降和通膨上升的形式對美國經濟本身造成損害，而且由於整個供應鏈無法在短時間內重新調整，因此試圖弄清楚下一步該怎麼做幾乎沒有意義。　它們要麼是基於錯誤的假設，要麼背後還有另一個不可知的動機。　賓州大學華頓商學院預算模型預測，美國 GDP 將長期下降約 6%，薪資將下降 5%。　

 

Investors can only control their own actions in this situation. First, the economically rational thing to do from an academic point of view would be to assign a risk (or uncertainty) premium to the US markets and their dependent companies. That means for the same level of earnings or cash flow, you would demand a lower price before you would want to buy that asset. Second, safe haven assets, like Gold and US Treasuries, which already rallied, could provide some diversification in case things get worse. Finally, while market timing is not suitable for most investors, if you have a very good reason to believe that the tariffs will lead to a US or global recession, then you could reduce equity exposure first. But the important thing is to have a plan to come back into equities, as even with uncertainties, it’s usually better to be invested in the market than not.

在這種情況下，投資者只能控制自己的行為。　首先，從學術角度來看，經濟上合理的做法是向美國市場及其相關公司加徵一個風險（或不確定性）溢價。　這意味著，對於相同程度的收益或現金流，您會要求更低的價格才會購買該資產。　其次，黃金和美國公債等避險資產雖然已經上漲，但如果市場情況惡化，它們還是可以為投資組合提供一定的多元化。　最後，雖然市場時機不適合大多數投資者，但如果您有充分的理由相信關稅將導致美國或全球經濟衰退，那麼您可以先減少股票頭寸。　但重要的是要有一個重返股市的計劃，因為即使存在不確定性，保持投資通常也比不投資好。　

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

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