Expert's View 名家觀點

Turbulent times 動盪的時代

四月 1 , 2022  

by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

The past few weeks have been marked with multiple crises. From the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the breakthrough of COVID-19 in China to extreme heat being recorded in the Earth’s poles, the consequences can be severe or already are. The current tragedy and suffering from these events should not be overlooked. The scope of this column, however, will be limited to personal investing.

過去幾週發生了多次危機。從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭到新冠疫情在中國爆發,再到地球南北兩極記錄的極端高溫,後果可能很嚴重或已經很嚴重。我們不應忽視當前的悲劇和這些事件帶來的痛苦。然而,本專欄將僅限於個人投資視角的範圍來討論。

 

 

Over the past month to March 21, world equity markets tumbled in response to the military conflict as well as inflation fears from supply shocks to Russian oil & gas and Chinese manufacturing, before subsequently recovering. However, oil prices have continued rising and so have soft commodities with much of the world’s food output coming from Russia and Ukraine.

在截止至 3 月 21 日的過去一個月裡,世界股市因軍事衝突以及對俄羅斯石油和天然氣和中國製造業的供應衝擊而引發的通脹擔憂而暴跌,隨後有所回升。然而,石油價格繼續上漲;而由於世界上相當比例的糧食產量來自俄羅斯和烏克蘭,也使得軟性商品價格繼續上漲。

 

The Russian ruble dropped almost by half following international sanctions and many Russian stocks fell as much as 90% before their trading was suspended. Global equity markets did not anticipate the risk of the Russian invasion, despite the public warnings of intelligence agencies. They may now be underestimating the follow-on risks. A global food shortage may lead to political conflict and then economic damage. Unexplained weather events like at the poles can accelerate the climate crisis beyond what scientists can be expecting. A wartime incident could bring the world’s two biggest nuclear powers into conflict. While these things may not be possible to act on at the moment, one should not rely on market action to inform the likelihood of future events. An efficient market needs to be unpredictable but not necessarily accurate.

在國際制裁之前,俄羅斯盧布下跌了近一半,許多俄羅斯股票在停牌前的跌幅已高達 90%。儘管情報機構曾公開警告,然而全球股市並未預料到俄羅斯入侵的風險。他們現在可能正在低估其後續風險。全球糧食短缺可能導致政治衝突,進而導致經濟損失。在南北兩極發生的一些無法解釋的天氣事件可能會加速氣候危機,這些都超出了科學家的預期。戰時事件可能會使世界上兩個最大的核大國陷入衝突。雖然目前並沒有對這些事件採取任何行動,但我們不應該依賴市場行為來告訴我們未來事件發生的可能性。一個有效率的市場應該是不可預測的,但不一定是準確的。

 

This episode is also a stark reminder of country risk. Both the attacking and defending country’s financial markets and economies are being devastated by the war. While some argue that the benefit of global country diversification is decreasing because the world financial markets are increasingly correlated, there are still major local political and event risks that can be mitigated. It doesn’t matter how well you analyze companies or economies if you aren’t diversified out of a country that has entered a crisis.

這一事件也清楚地提醒了大家國家層面的風險。無論是進攻方還是防守方,其金融市場和經濟都受到了戰爭巨大的破壞。儘管一些人認為,由於世界金融市場的相關性越來越強,多元化資產配置的優點也正在減少,然而仍有一些主要的地方政治和事件風險是可以避免的。如果你的配置多元化資產中包含了陷入危機的國家,那麼你分析公司或經濟的能力有多強都於事無補。

 

Going forward, the world has undoubtedly changed, even if the market levels are not much different than from the start of the month. Does this mean you should do anything to adjust your investment strategy? If you’re highly concentrated in assets that could be heavily affected by another single political decision or disaster, then you should probably diversify or prepare contingency plans in advance. Otherwise, if you believe your strategy can compound long term through multiple types of market environments without much adjustment, then it probably is also resilient against future events, predictable or not.

展望未來,即使市場水平與本月初沒有太大差異,但是世界無疑已經發生了變化。這是否意味著你應該做任何事情來調整你的投資策略?如果您高度集中在可能受到另一個單一政治決策或災難嚴重影響的資產上,那麼您可能應該提前使你的資產配置更多元化或準備應急計劃,除非您認為您的投資策略可以在多種類型的市場環境中長期復利增長而無需進行太多調整,那麼無論未來的事件是否可被預測,你的策略可能也可以抵禦這些未來事件。

 

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation