by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

As investors, we often talk about the story behind a stock. It might be a hidden opportunity, the tale of a visionary founder, a disruptive technology poised to reshape an industry, or an untapped market on the verge of being conquered. These narratives are powerful because they distill complex data and abstract potential into something tangible and emotionally resonant. It is when these narratives run in conflict with the facts on the ground, that investment opportunities can happen. However, care must be taken with these opportunities, because the story and the substance matter more at different times.

作為投資者，我們經常談論一支股票背後的故事。它可能是一個隱藏的機會、一位富有遠見的創辦人的傳奇、一項準備重塑行業的顛覆性技術，或是一個即將被開拓的潛力市場。這些敘事之所以強大，是因為它們將複雜的數據和抽象的潛力，提煉成有形且能引起情感共鳴的事物。當這些敘事與實際情況發生衝突時，投資機會便可能出現。　然而，我們必須謹慎對待這些機會，因為故事和實質在不同的時期，其重要性各有不同。

 

Stories are a key aspect of the cognitive and social architecture of human beings. Neurological studies reveal that stories engage multiple brain regions, including those responsible for emotion, memory, and even motor functions, suggesting a deep, inherent processing mechanism. Even when the truth is directly presented and completely contradictory to the initial false narratives, people often still cling to their prior beliefs. It is for this reason that it is dangerous to conclude for example that a stock is going to fall because it has become overvalued due to mistaken beliefs from other investors.

故事是人類認知及社會結構的一個關鍵層面。　神經學研究顯示，故事能觸發大腦的多個區域，包括負責情感、記憶甚至運動功能的區域，這表明我們天生就有一套深層的處理機制。　即使真相被直接呈現，且與最初的錯誤敘事完全矛盾，人們往往仍會堅守自己先前的信念。　正是由於這個原因，若僅因其他投資者的錯誤信念導致某支股票估值過高，便斷定其股價將會下跌，是相當危險的。

 

Unless there is a sufficiently powerful enough countervailing narrative, caused by something like an eventual collapse in earnings, there is little reason that the stories and investor behaviors would change on their own. This is why investment catalysts, future events that will create change in the perception of a stock, are so important. It’s not enough to be right when everyone else is wrong. Something else needs to happen to convince them to change.

除非出現一個足夠強大的抗衡敘事，例如最終的盈利崩盤，否則故事和投資者的行為幾乎沒有理由會自行改變。　這就是為什麼投資催化劑——那些將改變市場對股票看法的未來事件——如此重要。　當所有人都錯了，僅有你是對的，這還不夠。　還需要有其他事件發生，才能說服他們改變看法。

 

For the short-term investor or trader, the story often reigns supreme. In this arena, the market acts as what Benjamin Graham called a “voting machine,” tallying up popularity, sentiment, and hype. Daily price movements are less a reflection of a company’s discounted future cash flows and more a reaction to news, rumors, and shifting narratives.

對於短期投資者或交易者而言，故事往往佔據主導地位。在這個領域，市場扮演著班傑明・葛拉漢所說的「投票機」角色，計算著人氣、情緒和炒作的熱度。　每日的價格波動，與其說是公司未來現金流折現的反映，不如說是對新聞、謠言和敘事轉變的反應。

 

Over a longer investment horizon, however, the dynamic inverts. The market’s “voting machine” eventually gives way to its true function as a “weighing machine,” where substance inevitably asserts its dominance. A captivating story can inflate a stock’s price for months or even years, but it cannot indefinitely mask poor fundamentals. No narrative can perpetually substitute for revenue growth, profit margins, and a sustainable competitive advantage. Eventually, the financial reality of the business—its ability to generate and grow cash—becomes the ultimate anchor for its value. The long-term investor uses this principle to their advantage. Their bet is that, over time, the undeniable weight of consistent performance will create its own, more powerful narrative of success, and the market will be forced to listen.

然而，在較長的投資時間維度上，這種動態關係會發生逆轉。　市場的「投票機」最終會讓位給其作為「體重機」的真正功能，屆時，事物本質將不可避免地彰顯其主導地位。　一個引人入勝的故事可以將股價推高數月甚至數年，但它無法無限期地掩蓋疲弱的基本面。　任何敘事都無法永遠替代營收增長、利潤率和可持續的競爭優勢。　最終，一家企業的財務現實——其創造和增長現金的能力——將成為其價值的最終錨點。　長期投資者正是利用這一原則來獲利。　他們賭的是，隨著時間的推移，持續穩健表現的千鈞之重將創造出屬於自己的、更強大的成功敘事，而市場終將被迫傾聽。

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

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