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政治噪音和信號 Political Noise and Signal

七月 1 , 2024  

by Charles Cheng, CFA



In 2024, an unusually large number of elections are being held, in 64 countries, involving nearly half of the world’s population.  These, with those that have already taken place, include the United States, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Parliamentary Elections for the EU.  It would be hard to argue that elections do not have real economic consequences.  History shows that policy can have large implications on a country’s future growth, or at least an individual sector like defense or oil and gas.  However, profitably investing based on politics is an area fraught with big potential missteps.  Here are some ways to think about and navigate potentially significant political events.

2024 年,在全球64 個國家舉行的選舉數量將會異常的多,涉及全球近一半人口。 這些選舉以及已經舉行的選舉包括美國、印度、巴西、印尼和歐盟議會選舉。 很難說政治選舉不會產生真正的經濟後果。 歷史表明,政策可能對一個國家的未來成長產生重大影響,或至少對國防或石油和天然氣等單一產業的成長產生重大影響。 然而,想要基於政治而獲利的投資是一個充滿潛在失誤的領域。 以下是思考和應對潛在重大政治事件的一些方法。 


1) Keep your analyses rational – It’s normal for anyone following political contests, especially in their country of residence to become emotionally invested or take sides as to which faction is better for people overall.  While you may be correct, that outcome is entirely a different question as to whether a given election outcome will be good or bad for market returns.

1) 保持分析理性-對於任何關注政治競賽的人來說,特別是在他們居住的國家,變得情緒化投資或偏向某個對整體人民來說更好的派別是很正常的。 對選情的預測雖然你可能是對的,但這個結果與特定的選舉結果對市場回報是好是壞完全是個不同的問題。 


2) Ignore the noise – In a political contest, its typical for one side to claim the other side would be disastrous for the economy, or cause inflation, or hurt a certain business sector.  If their messaging is successful, such claims could be repeated in the media as an expected outcome.  Given the incentives to sow fear about one’s opponent, it’s unlikely that these claims are entirely fair or they might not even going to be based in reality.  If an investor is really concerned about the actual economic impact of a candidate’s policies, they need to directly evaluate the impact of each of their stated policies as well as the likelihood of those policies being implemented rather than listen to what others are saying about it.

2)忽略噪音-在政治競賽中,通常一方會聲稱另一方將對經濟造成災難性影響,或導致通貨膨脹,或損害某個商業部門。 如果他們的訊息傳遞成功,這種說法可能會作為預期結果在媒體上重複出現。 考慮到散佈對對手恐懼的動機,這些說法不太可能完全公平,甚至可能沒有現實依據。 如果投資者真正關心候選人政策的實際經濟影響,他們需要直接評估他們所聲明的每項政策的影響以及這些政策實施的可能性,而不是聽取其他人的說法。 


3) Don’t overstate political impacts – While political actions can and do have significant impacts on companies, barring extreme circumstances like a nationalization of an industry, the extent to which a democratically elected leader can change the course of an economic cycle, especially within a four- or five-year period, is usually quite limited.  Also, many of these impacts would have already been anticipated by the market, so it’s not clear whether the market would react in the direction you would expect given the election. Because of this, the market could have the complete opposite reaction that is expected (like rising on negative news).

3) 不要誇大政治影響-除非出現行業國有化等極端情況,雖然政治行動可以而且確實會對公司產生重大影響,一般情況下民主選舉的領導人可以在多大程度上改變經濟週期的進程,特別是在四年或五年的任期內,其實是相當有限的。 此外,市場已經預料到其中許多影響,因此尚不清楚市場是否會按照您預期的選舉方向做出反應。 因此,市場可能會出現與預期完全相反的反應(例如因負面消息而上漲)。 


4) Remember that value comes from long term cash flows – The valuation of a company largely depends on the market’s belief in its ability to execute on its business for years to come.  From that perspective, the ability for most political policies to change this ability within a four- or five-year election cycle should be limited.  However, if the price of a company that you think is strong does come down due to election fears, perhaps this is the best opportunity to make investment returns from politics.

4) 請記住,價值來自長期現金流-公司的估值很大程度上取決於市場對其未來幾年業務執行能力的信心。 從這個角度來看,大多數政治政策想要在四年或五年的選舉週期內改變這種執行能力應該是有限的。 然而,如果你認為那些強勁的公司的股價確實因選舉擔憂而下跌,也許這就是從政治中獲得投資回報的最佳機會。 



This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.


圖說:Republican Elephant & Democratic Donkey 引用自 CC BY 2.0.