by Charles Cheng, CFA & MBA

 

 

In September, the FOMC cut interest rates for the first time this year, and its projections signaled two more cuts in 2025. Despite the need to ease to cushion a somewhat softening economy and despite potential inflationary pressures, stock markets continue to march higher to record or close to record highs.  Anxiety over economic and political conditions is a very common feeling among investors. But how much should individual investors be paying attention to the economy when making investment decisions?

9月，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）進行了今年首次降息，預測顯示2025年將再降息兩次。　儘管需要放鬆貨幣政策以緩解略微疲軟的經濟，並且存在潛在的通膨壓力，但股市仍在持續上漲，創下或接近歷史高點。　對經濟和政治狀況的擔憂是投資者普遍存在的情緒。　但個人投資者在做出投資決策時應該對經濟狀況給予多大的關注呢？

 

The relationship between economic variables and stock market performance tends to be complex. Academic studies have shown that stock returns react negatively to inflation and unexpected interest rate moves, and that inverted yield curves frequently signal worse stock market returns. However, there isn’t a clear correlation between economic growth and stock returns, particularly in the short term. Economic data is backward looking while market returns are discounting predictions of the future.

經濟變數與股市表現之間的關係往往很複雜。　學術研究表明，股票回報會受到通膨和意外利率變動的負面影響，而殖利率曲線倒掛往往預示著股市回報下降。　然而，經濟成長與股票報酬之間並沒有明顯的相關性，尤其是在短期內。　經濟數據是回顧性的，而市場回報則會低估未來的預測。　

 

While stock market crashes are frequently associated with recessions, by the time the recession is officially announced, the market declines could already be over. If one were able to successfully predict future recessions before markets crashed, then there could be market timing value, but recessions are also famously difficult to predict, with a false prediction possibly being as costly to an investor as an actual recession.

雖然股市崩盤通常與經濟衰退聯繫在一起，但當經濟衰退正式宣佈時，市場下跌可能已經結束。　如果有人能夠在市場崩盤前成功預測未來的經濟衰退，那麼就可能存在市場時機價值，但眾所周知，經濟衰退也難以預測，錯誤的預測對投資者造成的損失可能與真正的經濟衰退一樣大。　

 

Would some investors be better off ignoring economic news completely? Possibly, if they find their decisions becoming too much influence, although it is still worthwhile to follow them. While there are some investors who can profit from analyzing macroeconomic factors, most would be better off just ignoring the noise of economic news and data and focusing on strategies that would sustain throughout any point of cycles. Examples could be only buying assets at reasonable prices or passively holding fixed asset allocations. Such strategies would keep the investor from selling out of the market and being too afraid to come back in.

有些投資人會不會更傾向於完全忽略經濟新聞？如果他們發現自己的決策太受經濟新聞的影響，那麼這種做法或許可行，儘管遵循這些新聞仍然值得。　雖然有些投資者可以透過分析宏觀經濟因素獲利，但大多數投資者最好忽略經濟新聞和數據的噪音，專注於那些能夠在任何週期點持續有效的策略。　例如，只以合理的價格購買資產，或被動持有固定資產配置。　這樣的策略可以防止投資人拋售股票後因過於害怕而不敢再次入市。　

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

 

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