by Charles Cheng, CFA & MBA

 

 

The current bull market going into 2026 has lasted over three years now, since the end of the Fed tightening bear market in 2022, and coinciding the launch of the GPT era. How long it continues is anyone’s guess but based on history we know that nothing lasts forever.  The challenge for investors is to be able to enjoy strong returns in the good times while making sure those gains are preserved when things go bad again.

進入 2026 年，當前的牛市自 2022 年聯準會實施緊縮政策引發的熊市結束以來，已持續了三年多，且正好與 GPT 時代的開啟同步。　這波行情還能持續多久沒人能斷言，但根據歷史經驗，我們深知沒有什麼是永恆的。　投資者面臨的挑戰在於：既要在好景氣時享受強勁的回報，又要確保在局勢惡化時守住這些收益。　

 

Investors rightly have a tendency to stick to what works for them. If they have success with strategies like buying on dips or concentrating on a particular sector then they will likely continue using those strategies and continue to benefit from them. But while these rules work exceptionally well during periods of stability and credit expansion, they could become liabilities when the market enters a new regime.

投資者理所當然地傾向於堅持行之有效的方法。　如果逢低買入（Buying on dips）或專注於特定產業曾讓他們獲利，他們就很可能會繼續沿用這些策略並從中受益。　然而，雖然這些規則在穩定和信貸擴張時期極其有效，但當市場進入新規律時，它們可能會變成沉重的負擔。　

 

A market regime is a distinct environment characterized by specific behaviors in volatility and correlation. The most dangerous mistake an investor can make is assuming that the current environment will persist indefinitely. W/hen the market shifts from a low-volatility regime to a high-volatility regime, the mechanics of price movement change fundamentally. Strategies that generate wealth in a calm market can lead to significant capital destruction in a turbulent one.

市場規律是一種獨特的環境，其特徵是特定的波動性與相關性行為。　投資者最危險的錯誤，就是假設當前環境會無限期持續。　當市場從低波動規律轉向高波動規律時，價格運動的機制會發生根本性的變化。　在平靜市場中累積財富的策略，在動盪市場中可能會導致嚴重的資本損耗。　

 

During a bull market, which is typically characterized by economic expansion and optimism, investors prioritize the potential for future earnings over current stability. In this environment, capital flows toward “High Beta” stocks. These are companies that tend to move faster than the overall market. If the S&P 500 rises by one percent, a high-beta stock might rise by two or three percent.

在通常以經濟擴張和樂觀情緒為特徵的牛市中，投資者會將未來的獲利潛力置於當前的穩定之上。　在這種環境下，資本會流向「高貝塔（High Beta）」股票。　這些公司的走勢往往比大盤更劇烈——如果標普 500 指數上漲 1%，高貝塔股可能會上漲 2% 或 3%。　

 

During a regime shift to a down market, as tends to happen when an economy moves into a recessionary downturn, volatility tends to cluster. This means that a sharp drop is often not the end of the selling, but a signal of further instability. Investors stop caring about what a company might earn in ten years and start focusing on what it is earning right now. This danger is compounded by correlation risk. In normal times, different asset classes move independently; when stocks go down, bonds might go up, balancing your portfolio. In a liquidity crisis or a severe downturn, these correlations tighten. Investors forced to raise cash will sell whatever they can, causing stocks, bonds, and sometimes even gold to fall simultaneously. The diversification that protected you during the calm periods often evaporates exactly when you need it most.

當市場規律轉向空頭市場（通常發生在經濟進入衰退期時），波動性往往會呈現「聚集」現象。　這意味著劇烈的跌勢通常不是拋售的終結，而是進一步不穩定的訊號。　投資者不再關心一家公司十年後可能賺多少，而是開始關注它現在賺多少。　這種危險會因「相關性風險」而加劇。　在正常時期，不同類別的資產獨立運作；當股票下跌時，債券可能會上漲，從而平衡你的投資組合。　但在流動性危機或嚴重衰退中，這些相關性會收緊。　被迫變現的投資者會不計代價地拋售，導致股票、債券、有時甚至是黃金同時下跌。　那些在平穩期保護你的多元化配置，往往在你最需要它的時刻煙消雲散。　

 

Cash is often viewed as a drag on performance in a roaring bull market because it does not generate high returns and loses purchasing power to inflation. However, in a volatile down market, cash transforms into a strategic asset. It should be viewed as a call option without an expiration date. Holding liquidity allows an investor to remain calm when others are panicking and provides the resources to purchase high-quality assets at distressed prices. Adapting to a new market regime requires a psychological shift. The goal is to ensure that while you may not capture every dollar of the upside, you are mathematically guaranteed to survive the downside.

在狂熱的牛市中，現金常被視為拖累表現的因素，因為它不產生高回報，且購買力會因通膨而縮水。　然而，在動盪的跌勢中，現金會轉化為戰略資產。　它應該被視為一份「沒有到期日的看漲期權（Call Option）」。　持有流動性能讓投資者在他人恐慌時保持冷靜，並提供資源以折價購買優質資產。　適應新的市場規律需要心理上的轉變。　其目標是確保：雖然你可能無法賺取上漲行情中的每一分錢，但在數學邏輯上，你保證能在跌勢中生存下來。　

 

Obviously, it’s not easy to identify when a regime shifts, or else investing itself would be quite simple. The first step to protecting oneself, however, is simply realizing that such a shift can happen, and that strategies may backfire simply because the environment is different. Furthermore, having a good mix of companies that can perform in a variety of environments, with an emphasis on quality can cushion the initial shock of an unexpected regime shift. Regardless of your strategy, ultimately, the goal is to have a set of strategies resilient enough to survive any downturn while maintaining the flexibility to profit from the growth that inevitably follows.

顯然，識別規律移轉並不容易，否則投資本身就會變得非常簡單。　然而，保護自己的第一步，是意識到這種轉變確實會發生，並且意識到原有策略可能會單純因為環境改變而產生反效果。　此外，擁有一組能應對多種環境、且強調「品質」的投資組合，可以緩衝意外規律改變帶來的首波衝擊。　無論你的策略為何，最終目標都是要擁有一套具備韌性的策略，足以在任何衰退中生存，同時保持靈活性，以便從終將到來的經濟增長中獲利。　

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

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